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Middle East on Edge: Explosive Israel-Iran Showdown Fuels Nuclear Tensions and Regional Power Struggle

By Sõzarn Barday

In April, a shadow war escalated between Israel and Iran after an Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus killed several personnel, including two generals from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In response, Iran launched 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel. Israel has since conducted frequent strikes on Hezbollah and Iranian-linked sites in Syria and Lebanon, intensifying pressure on the regional “axis of resistance.”

On October 26, 2024, Israel carried out a series of strikes on Iranian military bases, hitting 20 sites in a matter of hours. Four Iranian soldiers were killed, though damage was reportedly minimal. According to Iran’s air defence headquarters, the “aggressive action was successfully intercepted and countered by the country’s integrated air defence system.”

Iran has asserted its right to “defend itself against external aggressive acts,” emphasizing that such Israeli attacks are a threat to its sovereignty. This escalation has renewed debate over Supreme Leader Khamenei’s fatwa banning nuclear weapons, a cornerstone of Iran’s nuclear policy and stance on non-proliferation. However, Khamenei’s advisor Kamal Kharrazi has noted, “we have no decision to build a nuclear bomb, but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine.”

UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani has called for a measured response, stating that Iran’s retaliation should “punish the aggressor for its acts of terrorism and violations of Iran’s sovereignty,” while avoiding actions that could undermine the possibility of a ceasefire.

Iran’s nuclear policy emphasizes peaceful nuclear technology, a nuclear weapons-free zone, and adherence to Khamenei’s fatwa. This transparency contrasts with Israel’s policy, as Israel has not disclosed its nuclear capabilities. In 2023, former Israeli minister Amichai Eliyahu openly suggested that deploying nuclear weapons on Gaza was “an option,” later stating that Gaza has “no right to exist” and threatening those supporting Hamas or Palestine. Eliyahu was subsequently suspended from government indefinitely.

Eliyahu’s comments suggest that Israel possesses nuclear weapons and intends to use them. This raises the question: where are the international nuclear inspectors and the International Atomic Energy Agency?

Hossein Amirabdollahian, Iranian Foreign Minister stated that “The UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency must take immediate and uninterrupted action to disarm this barbaric and apartheid regime”.

Historically, the roots of Israel’s nuclear program can be traced back to 1964, when France built a nuclear reactor for Israel in the Negev Desert. By 1965, Israel had reportedly acquired 200 pounds of weapons-grade uranium from the United States and hijacked a Liberian ship in international waters to seize a significant shipment of yellowcake uranium. Evidence suggests that Israel has possessed nuclear weapons since the 1970s, with Prime Minister Golda Meir contemplating the deployment of 13 nuclear bombs against Egypt and Syria, a move averted only after Henry Kissinger orchestrated a substantial airlift of weapons to Israel to turn the tide of the conflict. Israel also maintained a decades-long nuclear collaboration with South Africa’s apartheid regime, which continued until the regime’s collapse in 1994.

Experts estimate that Israel possesses around 400 nuclear devices, including neutron bombs, thermonuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons, and portable nuclear devices. Israel also has a comprehensive missile delivery system with a range of 11,500 kilometres, reaching well beyond Iran. Additionally, Israel operates submarines capable of launching nuclear missiles and jet fighters designed to deliver nuclear payloads.

Despite presenting itself as a stabilizing force in the Middle East, Israel has historically hindered regional nuclear development, ostensibly to maintain peace. However, it has violated international law by bombing Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor, which was under construction with peaceful intentions, as confirmed by the Iraqi and French governments, and attacked a nuclear reactor under construction in Syria in 2007. Furthermore, Mossad has been implicated in the assassination of numerous scientists from Iraq, Egypt, and Iran over the decades. To this day, Israel refuses to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and denies the International Atomic Energy Agency access to inspect its Dimona reactor.

Recently, Iran’s judiciary sentenced three individuals to death for allegedly spying for Israel and assisting in the 2020 assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, killed in an ambush near Tehran. The accused were said to have smuggled equipment into Iran to carry out the assassination under the pretence of transporting alcoholic beverages. Iran claimed a high-tech, satellite-controlled camera had tracked Fakhrizadeh’s movements. Israel has not confirmed or denied involvement.

Since the escalation that began on October 7, 2023, Israel has been engaged in continuous military operations against neighbouring countries, including the occupation of Palestinian and Lebanese territories, employing internationally banned weapons like phosphorus bombs, and causing ongoing civilian casualties. The Israeli government’s policies are deeply rooted in ideologies that foster anti-Arab and anti-Muslim sentiments, further exacerbating tensions within the region and supporting similar campaigns in the U.S. and Europe, permeating educational and cultural narratives.

Amid this backdrop, Iran continues to actively support the “axis of resistance,” which includes Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, who oppose Israeli influence in Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen, respectively.

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