Can Isarael plot the shifting sands of the middle east?
By Allister Sparks
(source: Businessday, Cape times + Mercury Online)
The tectonic plates of Middle Eastern politics are shifting. Having just returned from my eighth visit in the past six years to the world’s most explosive region, I believe a completely new political landscape will emerge there over the next two years.
Old dominant players are fading and new ones emerging, while the centrepiece of its volcanic core, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is itself undergoing a change of dynamics.
The most significant change is that the US is going to withdraw from the dominant role it has played in the region for decades. The US has exhausted itself in the two wars it has had to wage since George W Bush launched his "shock and awe" attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq seven years ago.
The shock has been the US’s. The unquenchable civil wars those invasions ignited have drained the US of blood and treasure to the point where that weakened superpower no longer has the political will to tolerate the costs. President Barack Obama is committed to withdrawing from both countries by the end of next year, even though they are likely still to be strife-torn and insecure.
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